Enter the champions below, or to generate a random set of champions.
Champions on Blue Side:
Champions on Red Side:
Anyone with the slightest experience with ARAM knows that there are many good (and bad) champions on this map - in particular, ranged champions with long range poke and/or sustain tend to be favoured in ARAM. To quickly show that this is indeed the case, here are the top and bottom 5 champions in ARAM on Patch 6.15 by win rate after removing mirror matches:
Several different models were attempted, including logistic regression, random forest, XGB, and some simple MLP. Somewhat surprisingly, a logistic regression model performed remarkably well against the other models. A small amount of regularization was needed for the logistic regression since the covariate matrix was rank deficient.
The result from the testing set is as follows:
Confusion Matrix and Statistics Reference Prediction LOSS WIN LOSS 13617 7174 WIN 7371 14621 Accuracy : 0.66 95% CI : (0.6555, 0.6645) No Information Rate : 0.5094 P-Value [Acc > NIR] : <2e-16 Kappa : 0.3197 Mcnemar's Test P-Value : 0.1041 Sensitivity : 0.6488 Specificity : 0.6708 Pos Pred Value : 0.6549 Neg Pred Value : 0.6648 Prevalence : 0.4906 Detection Rate : 0.3183 Detection Prevalence : 0.4860 Balanced Accuracy : 0.6598 'Positive' Class : LOSS
Which seems very good. The ROC curve is as follows: